The Rangers and some of their arbitration eligible players avoided arbitration today signing 1-year extensions.
- Robinson Chirinos – $1.950m (TR projected $2.1m, I projected $2.18m)
- Sam Dyson – $3.52m (TR projected $3.9m, I projected $2.9m)
- A.J. Griffin – $2.0m (TR projected $1.9m, I projected $2.225m)
- Tanner Scheppers – $975k (TR projected $1.1m, I projected $1.085m)
As far as projections. I am building a model to project these figures in hopes of contributing a deeper analysis for a future piece of mine regarding Yu Darvish. The model is not as accurate as I would like it to be at this moment, and I am still tweaking it. But with zero prior experience or knowledge in analytical statistics I feel I’m making an admirable attempt to recreate a model similar to Matt Swartz’s (MLB Trade Rumors) and Rich Rieder’s (Fangraphs).
As far as the variance, it appears Chirinos will earn a bit less than than what my model suggested at a $200k difference. Dyson will earn a bit more than my model suggest, which was a $420k difference. His figure is a very high base for a super-two player and I believe this will directly impact his future in Texas, for better or worse due to a lack there of or an abundance of performance. Griffin will earn a tad less than what I had expected, which was a $200k difference, as well as Scheppers whom I had at a $100k difference. All except Dyson were fairly close, and we don’t know what the team offered nor what the players asked for, which could play an impact in negotiating. Teams and players will typically meet half way between the two offers, and my model does not take that into account yet.
Dyson getting $3.52m was quite a surprise. I highly anticipated his figure to fall quite short of MLB Trade Rumors projection or $3.9m. But even yet, $3.52m was a little more than I had expected. Dyson is a super-two arbitration eligible player this off-season, which means he will have 3 more off-seasons to be arbitration eligible if he remains on a roster collecting service time. Typically, super-twos do not get as much of a pay day as a normal first year arbitration eligible player would receive.